Contents 1 Calculation 1.1 Example 2 Two-party swing 3 Australia 4 United Kingdom 5 United States of America 6 Three party swing or greater 7 See also 8 Notes and references


Calculation[edit] A swing is calculated by comparing the percentage of the vote in a particular election to the percentage of the vote belonging to the same party or candidate at the previous election. One-party swing (in percentage points) = Percentage of vote (current election) − percentage of vote (previous election).[n 1] Example[edit] Examples include the comparison between the 2006 and 2007 Ukrainian Parliamentary elections. Swing analysis comparison Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections 2006 to 2007: The above charts show the change in voter support for each of the six major political parties by electoral district and nationwide vote results.[2]


Two-party swing[edit] In many nation states' media, including in Australia[n 2] and the United Kingdom, swing is normally expressed in terms of two parties. This practice is most useful where most governments tend to be from an existing two-party system but other candidates do sometimes run, and is used to predict the outcome of elections in constituency-based systems where different seats are held with different previous levels of support. An assumption underlies extrapolated national calculations: that all districts will experience the same swing as shown in a poll or in a place's results. The advantage of this swing is the fact that the loss of support for one party will in most cases be accompanied by smaller or bigger gain in support for the other, but both figures are averaged into one. Employing the two assumptions allows the analyst to compute an electoral pendulum, predicting how many (and which) seats will change hands given a particular swing, and what size uniform swing would therefore bring about a change of government.[3][4][5]


Australia[edit] Main article: Swing (Australian politics) In Australia, the term "swing" refers to the change in the outcome of an election from the viewpoint of specific political parties in the preferential voting system.[clarification needed]


United Kingdom[edit] Main article: Swing (United Kingdom) The UK uses the two-party swing (averaged model), adding one party's increase in share of the vote (expressed as a percentage point) to the percentage-point fall of another party and dividing the total by two. So if Party One's vote rises by 4 points and Party Two's vote falls 5 points, the swing is 4.5 points (Party 2 to Party 1).[6] For disambiguation suffixes such as: (Con to Lab) (Lab to Lib Dem) (Lib Dem to Con) must be added where three parties stand. Otherwise a problem when deciding which swing is meant and which swing is best to publish arises where a lower party takes first or second; or where a party loses one of the top two places.[n 3] Originating as a mathematical calculation for comparing the results of two constituencies,[n 4] any of these figures can be used as an indication of the scale of voter change between any two political parties, as shown below for the 2010 United Kingdom general election: Labour to Conservative swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing Labour to Liberal Democrat swing


United States of America[edit] Main article: Swing state Swing in the United States can refer to swing state, those states that are known to shift an outcome between Democrats and Republican Parties, equivalent on a local level to marginal seats. By contrast, a non-swing state is the direct equivalent of a safe seat, as it rarely changes in outcome. The extent of change in political outcome is heavily influenced by the voting system in use.[n 5]


Three party swing or greater[edit] Some websites provide a pie chart based or column-based multi party swingometer where ± x%, ± x%, ± x% and so on is displayed or can be input for three parties (or more in more plural democracies). This tool or illustration provides likely outcomes wherever more than two political parties have a significant influence on which politicians are elected.[7]


See also[edit] Swing vote Swingometer


Notes and references[edit] Notes ^ Example: Labor Party 51% (this year) less Labor Party 41% (four years ago) means the Labor Party saw a swing of 10 points (this implies in their favour and can also be published as +10 points) ^ its states and territories ^ E.g. a Liberal Democrat drops from first to third place and a Conservative Party former runner-up wins to a Labour Party runner-up who was in third place, here three interesting swings are relevant: Lib Dem-Con, Lib Dem-Lab and Lab-Con (and their opposite sign (+/-) equivalents for the opposite way swings). ^ Britain, like the US, uses a first-past-the-post voting system and where a new third party or independent candidate has a better or worse result (or stands or chooses not to) this calculation allows for a more understandable comparison between the parties which are of wider interest ^ As in the UK, the US employs a first-past-the-post voting system as its main voting system. References ^ Electoral Calculus 2010 Election: UK Polls Comparison ^ Ukraine – official published election results ^ Electoral Calculus website ^ BBC Swingometer ^ UK Polling Report Swingometer Map ^ BBC Explanation of Two Way Swing ^ Guardian Swingometer Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Swing_(politics)&oldid=816392231" Categories: ElectionsElections in AustraliaElections in the United KingdomElections in the United StatesPsephologyHidden categories: Wikipedia articles needing clarification from June 2017


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