Contents 1 Definition 2 Risks and precautions 3 Ethics and chaos 4 In fiction 5 See also 6 References 7 Further reading 8 External links

Definition[edit] The term was first used by molecular nanotechnology pioneer Eric Drexler in his book Engines of Creation (1986). In Chapter 4, Engines Of Abundance, Drexler illustrates both exponential growth and inherent limits (not gray goo) by describing nanomachines that can function only if given special raw materials: Imagine such a replicator floating in a bottle of chemicals, making copies of itself...the first replicator assembles a copy in one thousand seconds, the two replicators then build two more in the next thousand seconds, the four build another four, and the eight build another eight. At the end of ten hours, there are not thirty-six new replicators, but over 68 billion. In less than a day, they would weigh a ton; in less than two days, they would outweigh the Earth; in another four hours, they would exceed the mass of the Sun and all the planets combined — if the bottle of chemicals hadn't run dry long before. According to Drexler, the term was popularized by an article in science fiction magazine Omni, which also popularized the term nanotechnology in the same issue. Drexler says arms control is a far greater issue than grey goo "nanobugs".[7] In a History Channel broadcast, a contrasting idea (a kind of gray goo) is referred to in a futuristic doomsday scenario: "In a common practice, billions of nanobots are released to clean up an oil spill off the coast of Louisiana. However, due to a programming error, the nanobots devour all carbon based objects, instead of just the hydrocarbons of the oil. The nanobots destroy everything, all the while, replicating themselves. Within days, the planet is turned to dust."[8] Drexler describes gray goo in Chapter 11 of Engines of Creation: Early assembler-based replicators could beat the most advanced modern organisms. 'Plants' with 'leaves' no more efficient than today's solar cells could out-compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough, omnivorous 'bacteria' could out-compete real bacteria: they could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. Dangerous replicators could easily be too tough, small, and rapidly spreading to stop — at least if we made no preparation. We have trouble enough controlling viruses and fruit flies. Drexler notes that the geometric growth made possible by self-replication is inherently limited by the availability of suitable raw materials. Drexler used the term "gray goo" not to indicate color or texture, but to emphasize the difference between "superiority" in terms of human values and "superiority" in terms of competitive success: Though masses of uncontrolled replicators need not be grey or gooey, the term "grey goo" emphasizes that replicators able to obliterate life might be less inspiring than a single species of crabgrass. They might be "superior" in an evolutionary sense, but this need not make them valuable. Bill Joy, one of the founders of Sun Microsystems, discussed some of the problems with pursuing this technology in his now-famous 2000 article in Wired magazine, titled "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us". In direct response to Joy's concerns, the first quantitative technical analysis of the ecophagy scenario was published in 2000 by nanomedicine pioneer Robert Freitas.[3]

Risks and precautions[edit] Drexler more recently conceded that there is no need to build anything that even resembles a potential runaway replicator. This would avoid the problem entirely. In a paper in the journal Nanotechnology, he argues that self-replicating machines are needlessly complex and inefficient. His 1992 technical book on advanced nanotechnologies Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation[9] describes manufacturing systems that are desktop-scale factories with specialized machines in fixed locations and conveyor belts to move parts from place to place. None of these measures would prevent a party from creating a weaponized grey goo, were such a thing possible. Prince Charles called upon the British Royal Society to investigate the "enormous environmental and social risks" of nanotechnology in a planned report, leading to much media commentary on gray goo. The Royal Society's report on nanoscience was released on 29 July 2004, and declared the possibility of self-replicating machines to lie too far in the future to be of concern to regulators.[10] More recent analysis in the paper titled Safe Exponential Manufacturing from the Institute of Physics (co-written by Chris Phoenix, Director of Research of the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, and Eric Drexler), shows that the danger of grey goo is far less likely than originally thought.[11] However, other long-term major risks to society and the environment from nanotechnology have been identified.[12] Drexler has made a somewhat public effort to retract his grey goo hypothesis, in an effort to focus the debate on more realistic threats associated with knowledge-enabled nanoterrorism and other misuses.[13] In Safe Exponential Manufacturing, which was published in a 2004 issue of Nanotechnology, it was suggested that creating manufacturing systems with the ability to self-replicate by the use of their own energy sources would not be needed.[14] The Foresight Institute also recommended embedding controls in the molecular machines. These controls would be able to prevent anyone from purposely abusing nanotechnology, and therefore avoid the grey goo scenario.[15]

Ethics and chaos[edit] Grey goo is a useful construct for considering low-probability, high-impact outcomes from emerging technologies. Thus, it is a useful tool in the ethics of technology. Daniel A. Vallero[16] applied it as a worst-case scenario thought experiment for technologists contemplating possible risks from advancing a technology. This requires that a decision tree or event tree include even extremely low probability events if such events may have an extremely negative and irreversible consequence, i.e. application of the precautionary principle. Dianne Irving[17] admonishes that "any error in science will have a rippling effect....". Vallero adapted this reference to chaos theory to emerging technologies, wherein slight permutations of initial conditions can lead to unforeseen and profoundly negative downstream effects, for which the technologist and the new technology's proponents must be held accountable.

In fiction[edit] See also: Self-replicating machines in fiction

See also[edit] Alkahest Astrochicken Claytronics Ice-nine Molecular machines Paperclip maximizer Programmable matter Self-replicating machine Self-reconfiguring modular robot Smartdust Synthetic biology Utility fog

References[edit] ^ "Grey Goo is a Small Issue". Center for Responsible Nanotechnology. 2003-12-14. Retrieved 2009-12-28.  ^ "Nanotechnology pioneer slays "grey goo" myths". Nanotechnology. Institute of Physics. 2006-07-06. Retrieved 2009-12-28.  ^ a b Freitas Jr., Robert A. (April 2000). "Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations". Retrieved 28 December 2009.  ^ Joseph, Lawrence E. (2007). Apocalypse 2012. New York: Broadway. p. 6. ISBN 978-0-7679-2448-1.  ^ Giles, Jim (2004). "Nanotech takes small step towards burying 'grey goo'". Nature. 429 (6992): 591. doi:10.1038/429591b. PMID 15190320.  ^ Nanotechnology: Molecular Machines that Mimic Life, OMNI, Vol. 9 No. 6, November 1986, p. 56ff. ^ Dr Eric Drexler - Nanotechnology: The Big Picture ^ "Modern Marvels: Doomsday Tech DVD". History Channel. 2004-12-28. Retrieved 2013-07-28.  ^ Drexler, K. Eric (1992). Nanosystems: molecular machinery, manufacturing, and computation. Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-57518-4.  ^ "Nanoscience and nanotechnologies: opportunities and uncertainties". The Royal Society. Retrieved 2011-08-23.  ^ "Leading nanotech experts put 'grey goo' in perspective" (Press release). Center for Responsible Nanotechnology. 9 June 2004. Retrieved 2006-06-17.  ^ "Current Results of Our Research". Center for Responsible Nanotechnology. Retrieved 2006-06-17.  ^ Rincon, Paul (2004-06-09). "Nanotech guru turns back on 'goo'". BBC News. Retrieved 2012-03-30.  ^ Phoenix, Chris; Eric Drexler (August 2004). "Safe Exponential Manufacturing" (PDF). Nanotechnology. 15 (8): 869–72. doi:10.1088/0957-4484/15/8/001.  ^ "Foresight Guidelines for Responsible Nanotechnology Development". Foresight Institute and IMM. Retrieved 2012-05-07.  ^ Vallero, Daniel (2007). Biomedical Ethics for Engineers: Ethics and Decision Making in Biomedical and Biosystem Engineering. Academic Press. ISBN 9780080476100.  ^ Irving, Dianne (October 28, 1999). "Science, the formation of conscience and moral decision theory". Proceedings of the Guadalupan Appeal: The Dignity and Status of the Human Embryo, Mexico City, Mexico. 

Further reading[edit] Lynn Margulis and Dorion Sagan—What Is Life? (1995). Simon & Schuster. ISBN 0-684-81087-5 Bill Bryson A Short History of Nearly Everything (2003) Green Goo—Life in the Era of Humane Genocide by Nick Szabo Green Goo: Nanotechnology Comes Alive! Green Goo: The New Nanothreat from Wired

External links[edit] Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations Safe exponential manufacturing Paper critical of "grey goo," summarized in article Nanotechnology pioneer slays "grey goo" myths Online edition of the Royal Society's report Nanoscience and nanotechnologies: opportunities and uncertainties UK Government & Royal Society commission on Nanotechnology and Nanoscience Nanotechnology: Drexler and Smalley make the case for and against 'molecular assemblers' (Richard Smalley argues that laws of chemistry imply it will be impossible to ever create "self-replicating nanobots" whose abilities to assemble molecules are significantly different than those of biological self-replicators. Some pro-nanobot responses to Smalley's argument can be found at Debate About Assemblers — Smalley Rebuttal, The Drexler-Smalley debate on molecular assembly, Of Chemistry, Nanobots, and Policy, and Is the Revolution Real?) Nanotechnology and the Grey Goo Problem, BBC v t e Molecular nanotechnology Concepts Molecular assembler Molecular machine Mechanosynthesis Mechanochemistry Nanorobotics Self-replicating machine Productive nanosystems Grey goo Exploratory engineering Carbon nanotube nanomotor Utility fog Ecophagy Starseed launcher Organizations Foresight Institute Center on Nanotechnology and Society Future of Humanity Institute People K. Eric Drexler Christine Peterson J. Storrs Hall Ralph Merkle Robert Freitas James C. Bennett Works Engines of Creation Great Mambo Chicken and the Transhuman Condition Nanosystems "There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom" Other Foresight Institute Feynman Prize in Nanotechnology Drexler-Smalley debate on molecular nanotechnology Related topics Nanotechnology Nanomedicine Transhumanism Cryonics Technological singularity Impact of nanotechnology Societal v t e Global catastrophic risks Future of the Earth Ultimate fate of the universe Technological Grey goo Kinetic bombardment Mutual assured destruction Dead Hand Doomsday device Synthetic intelligence / Artificial intelligence Existential risk from artificial intelligence See Template AI takeover Technological singularity Transhumanism Sociological Malthusian catastrophe New World Order (conspiracy theory) Nuclear holocaust winter famine cobalt Societal collapse World War III Ecological Climate change Extinction risk from global warming Runaway climate change Global terrestrial stilling Ice age Ecocide Human impact on the environment See Template Ozone depletion Cascade effect Earth Overshoot Day Overexploitation Overpopulation Human overpopulation Biological Extinction Extinction event Human extinction Genetic erosion Genetic pollution Dysgenics Pandemic Biological agent Transhumanism Physical Big Crunch Big Rip Coronal mass ejection Gamma-ray burst Hypercane Impact event Asteroid Comet Potentially hazardous object Rogue planet Solar flare Supervolcano winter Mythological Eschatology Buddhist Christian Hindu Islamic Jewish Norse Zoroastrian 2011 end times prediction 2012 phenomenon Apocalypse Armageddon Blood moon prophecy Book of Revelation Doomsday Clock End time Last Judgment List of dates predicted for apocalyptic events Nibiru cataclysm Rapture Revelation 12 sign prophecy Third Temple Year 2000 problem Fiction Alien invasion Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction List of apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction Disaster films List of disaster films List of fictional doomsday devices Zombie apocalypse Categories Apocalypticism Future problems Hazards Risk analysis Doomsday scenarios Retrieved from "" Categories: Artificial lifeHypothetical environmental disastersDoomsday scenariosWords coined in the 1980sNanotechnologyRobotic conceptsSelf-replicating machinesThought experiments in ethicsHidden categories: Pages using div col with small parameterPages using div col with deprecated parameters

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